By: Frank Holder 

NOTES: Ratings from 1 to 4 given by Holder International; 1 representing a non-dangerous country, and 4 representing a very dangerous country. When the rating is accompanied by a plus sign (+) means that it approaches the next superior rating; and when the rating is accompanied by a minus sign (-), means that the rating approaches to the previous inferior rating. The ratings are based on official numbers from Public Security Secretariats, local police, governments, nongovernmental organizations and institutes of crime investigation. 

Story from Latin Business Chronicle

As Rio de Janeiro started its annual carnival celebrations last week, much of the city was in mourning over the death a week earlier of a 6-year old boy who was dragged to death after his mother's car was carjacked. Meanwhile, the murder last week of an Italian tourist in Cartagena, a Colombian resort city normally considered one of the safest places in Latin America, shocked foreigners and locals alike. The Italian was killed when she and her husband were mugged by attackers on motorcycles. "There is a slight worsening in the region’s public security [although] there are some exceptions," says Frank Holder, founder of Holder International and senior managing director of FTI Consulting.

 Both Brazil and Colombia are among the most dangerous countries in Latin America for business executives, while Chile and Costa Rica are the safest, according to the Latin Security Index of 18 Latin American countries developed by Holder International for Latin Business Chronicle. The index measures the danger level in each country based on homicide rates as well as other factors affecting corporate security and the safety of foreign business executives. Haiti and El Salvador also share the top four spots. Each country receives rating from 1 to 4 with 1 representing a non-dangerous country and 4 representing a very dangerous country. Not one single country in Latin America received a 1. The safest places - Chile and Costa Rica - received 2 and 2-, respectively. Nine countries receive a 3 (even, minus or plus), while the remaining seven receive a 4 (even, minus or plus).

Cuba was not included in the ranking due to unreliable data, Holder says.

One common problem in Central American countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua is gang-related violence, often cross-border in nature. "You have Guatemalans kidnapping Hondurans and jumping across the border," Holder says.

HAITI

Haiti receives a score of 4+. Holder International has no reliable homicide data, but the country is seen as one of the most dangerous in Latin America thanks to political violence and instability, death squads and crime generated from massive poverty, Holder says.

United Nations troops are currently helping the government of President Rene Preval in an effort to try to restore some order, but are frequently attacked by gangs loyal to former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who was ousted in 2004.

EL SALVADOR

El Salvador receives a danger level score of 4+. Last year, the Central American country had a homicide rate of 53.31 per 100,000 inhabitants, by far the highest rate in Latin America.

The security record stands in contrast to El Salvador's reputation as one of the most attractive business destinations in Latin America. It ranks second to Chile as having the freest economy in Latin America and does well in international competitiveness rankings. The government of President Antonio Saca has received high praise for his business-friendly policies.

Much of the crime is driven by organized gangs - the so called Maras - which were originally formed in the United States by Salvadorans who later were deported back to their home country. Despite an all-out war against the gangs, Saca has been unable to reduce crime.

“The government is trying to improve security [but] they need more resources,” Holder says.

Although Saca has the same intentions as his counterpart in Colombia, Alvaro Uribe, for example, he lacks the same firepower. Colombia has received massive U.S. aid to fight drug-related crime, which has also helped reduce crime in general, Holder points out.  

COLOMBIA

Colombia also receives a danger level score of 4+. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 35.87 per 100,000 people, an increase from 33.76 in 2005, according to Holder International. Colombia has the fourth-highest homicide rate in Latin America, according to Holder data for 15 countries in the region.

The homicide increase came despite an aggressive anti-crime policy of the administration of President Alvaro Uribe, which has reduced kidnappings. Much of the increase is due to growth in crime in the area along the border to Venezuela, Holder says. "It's turning into a lawless area sponsored by Venezuela," he says.

In the past, Colombia "exported" drug-related crime to Venezuela, says Holder. Now, Venezuela is "exporting" organized crime to Colombia.

Apart from the border area, there are also different danger levels from city to city. Despite the recent murder of the Italian tourist, Cartagena is by far the safest city in Colombia.

"It's always been an oasis from crime," Linsker says. "It's been blessed by a little peninsula easy to police. Basically, you never had attacks from [terrorist groups like] FARC and ELN. Crime statistics are relatively low [and mostly concentrated] in the poor shantytowns, while tourist and business areas are fine and safe."

But as any resort city with wealthy tourists, it does have occasional petty crime, but there's almost no mention of serious crimes like kidnappings, he adds.

 Thanks to more police patrols and policies that protect open spaces, provide more public lightning and other initiatives, Bogota and Medellin - Colombia's two top cities - are now much safer than previously, Linsker says. That stands in contrast to Medellin's past reputation as the crime capital of the world, he adds.

 The main danger city now is Cali, on the Pacific coast. "That's a big no-no for business travel," Linsker says.

 The city and the nearby Buenaventura port have been in the middle of a major war between drug gangs as well as FARC and ELN aimed at controlling drug shipments out of the port, Linsker says.

VENEZUELA

Venezuela receives a danger level score of 4+. Venezuela's criminal incidence is increasing, and its prevention policies show serious deficiencies, Holder points out. "There are clear indications of organized crime [and] drug trafficking related crimes are increasing near the Colombia border," he says.

(See Top Secret: Venezula's Rising Crime)

HONDURAS

Honduras receives a danger level score of 4. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 42.12 per 100,000 people, a decrease from 40.66 in 2005, according to Holder International. Honduras has the second-highest homicide rate in Latin America, according to Holder data for 15 countries in the region. "Honduras has become a country with a very high level of citizens’ insecurity," holder says

 Even according to the official police data, there has been a 300 percent crime increase in the last years, he points out.

 "A preponderant factor is the increase of the juvenile delinquency and the permanent activity of Maras, especially in criminal activities such as burglaries, thefts, rape and sexual assaults," Holder says. "Every time and more frequently, street confrontations between different gangs, take the lives of gang members and other citizens."

 There are some differences between the two top cities, though. While capital Tegucigalpa is mainly affected by mara violence, business city San Pedro Sula is affected by kidnappings. "In Tegucigalpa you get mugged and beat up, but probably not kidnapped," Holder says. "In San Pedro you get kidnapped and are in Guatemala in two seconds."

BRAZIL

Brazil receives a danger level score of 4+. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 45 per 100,000 people, a decrease from 46.89 in 2005, according to Holder International. Brazil has the third-highest homicide rate in Latin America, according to Holder data for 15 countries in the region.

Brazil major crimes of serious concern are the express kidnappings, and the organized violence by groups of federal prisoners in the main cities of the country, according to Holder International.

Rio is seen as the most dangerous city due to a combination of factors.

"Rio has a worse reputation than Sao Paulo and its justified," says Daniel Linsker, a Latin America analyst with London-based Control Risks Group.

 Part of the problem is that the city administration in Rio doesn't work properly, he argues. At the same time the police is inefficient and there is a huge contrast between rich and poor, he adds.

 Drug trafficking violence in Rio de Janeiro’s favelas (shanty towns), has forced the federal government to militarize the national security with 5.000 members of the National Security Force, an elite unit of police officers, Holder points out.

Also business hub Sao Paulo has seen its share of crime problems. Last year, organized gangs attacked buses and other targets, leaving more than 200 people dead. "There's a huge sense that [Sao Paulo] is no longer safe," Linsker says.

 Nevertheless, there has been a steady improvement in Sao Paulo the past four years, he says.

 And while kidnappings remain a serious problem, they typically affect local Brazilians not foreign business executives, he adds.

 However, express kidnappings are a threat to everyone, even foreign business people visiting, he warns.

BOLIVIA

Bolivia receives a danger level score of 3+. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 25.9 per 100,000 people, an increase from 22.5 in 2005, according to Holder International. Bolivia is undergoing severe political violence, an incapacity of the security forces to fight back against crime and rising levels of common delinquency, Holder says. Some cases of foreign kidnappings have also been seen, mainly with political aims.

A rising problem is the growing number of street protests by followers or opponents of President Evo Morales, Linsker warns.

MEXICO

Mexico receives a danger level score of 3+. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 27.1 per 100,000 people, according to Holder International, which did not have the 2005 figure. Mexico can be divided into four major areas, which have different security levels, Holder says. First, there is the area bordering the United States. "The border is completely lawless and out of control," he says.

 Then there's the state of Oaxaca, once a popular tourism destination, but now suffering from political violence that has cost the local hotels and tourism industry millions of dollars in losses. Then there's Mexico City, which suffers from massive insecurity, kidnappings and home invasions. And finally, there's the rest of Mexico, which is mostly safe, Holder says. That includes business hub Monterrey. "Monterrey is very safe," he says.

 Mexico's kidnapping’ rates are increasing. In addition, drug trafficking and organized crime in the border zone with the United States is growing.

 "Due to the police corruption and inefficiency, the new Mexican president has been forced to make important modifications in the public security forces and policies, which will only show its potential positive results within time," Holder says.

President Felipe Calderon, who assumed office in December, has sent military troops to the border area to install order and has started to extradite Mexican drug lords to the United States, where they are expected to be unable to run their organizations like they could from Mexican jails. "The problem in Mexico is that a lot of drug trafficking [has been] infiltrating state institutions, including the police and courts, causing a lot of problems," Linsker says.

GUATEMALA

Guatemala receives a danger level score of 3. Holder International does not have the 2006 homicide figure, but in 2005 it reached 37.53, one of the highest in Latin America. "Guatemala is currently going through one of its most complex national public insecurity episodes, in its history, due to the overflowed and continuous vandalism from the Maras," Holder says. "The country’s capital and other nearby municipalities, suffer severe levels of crimes of vandalism and barbarism. "

ARGENTINA

Argentina got a score of 3. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 15.21 per 100,000 people, an increase from 13.55 in 2005, according to Holder International. Argentina has seen an increase in youth delinquency (individuals ranging from 10 to 24 years old) although official data show kidnappings has decreased slightly. Homicides, on the other hand, have increased and crime in general has slightly risen.

It fails to get a lower score thanks to still-high level of kidnappings, theft of merchandise in transit and some political violence issues, Holder says.

 The 2004 kidnapping and murder of Axel Blumberg led his father, businessman Juan Carlos Blumberg, to start a crusade against crime, resulting in massive demonstrations.

Like Venezuela, Argentina has started to tinker with official statistics, including those on crime, Holder says.

ECUADOR

Ecuador gets a score of 3-. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 6.98 per 100,000 people, according to Holder International, which did not have the 2005 figure. The 2006 figure was the second-lowest homicide rate in Latin America, according to Holder data for 15 countries in the region.

However, Ecuador suffers from an increase in political protests that can affect foreign business travelers. At the end of last month, a group of pro-government protestors stormed the national assembly in Quito. Visitors to Quito may be involuntarily caught up in such protests, Linsker warns.

COSTA RICA

Costa Rica receives a danger level score of 2-, which is the second-best results on the Latin Security Index. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 6.1 per 100,000 people, a decrease from 7.64 in 2005, according to Holder International. Costa Rica has the lowest homicide rate in Latin America, according to Holder data for 15 countries in the region.

"Costa Rica is considered to be one of the most secure countries in the region and its insecurity level is gradually decreasing," Holder says.

 Crime seems to mainly affect the tourist populations who have been victims of thefts and larceny, like motor vehicle theft, reported to be somewhat caused by their own negligence, he points out.

CHILE

Chile receives a danger level score of 2, the best results on the Latin Security Index. The score came despite Chile having higher homicide rates than countries like Costa Rica and Ecuador. Last year, the country had a homicide rate of 11.66 per 100,000 people, an increase from 10.4 in 2005, according to Holder International.

The high score for Chile was due to its good results when it came to corporate security and personal safety for foreign business executives.

 "Chile reduced its criminal complaints rates for felonies and greater crimes by 9.3 percent [but] in spite of those advances, [the] homicide rate has slightly increased," Holder says.

 There are still two main types of crimes taking place: simple robberies and petty thefts in increase, and motor vehicles theft and larceny.

Chile is even safer than the United States. If the US were included in the comparison, it would receive a danger level score of 2-, slightly worse than Chile, according to Holder International.