By: Frank Holder 

NOTE: All rankings are from 1 to 5 by FTI Consulting Ibero America, 1 representing a non-dangerous country, and 5 representing a very dangerous country.  The ratings are based on official numbers from Public Security Secretariats, Local Police, Governments, Nongovernmental Organizations (NGO) and Institutes of Crime Investigations.

Story from Latin Business Chronicle

Costa Rica, Chile and Uruguay are the safest countries in Latin America, while Haiti remains the most dangerous country when it comes to security for business executives and multinationals, according to the latest Latin Security Index developed by FTI Consulting Ibero America for Latin Business Chronicle.

 Meanwhile, Ecuador’s spat with Colombia the past ten days over Colombia’s March 1 incursion across its border and accusations that Ecuador has been permitting FARC to have a safe haven, is creating a trend towards higher danger levels in Ecuador. 

“The recent spat with Colombia over incursions across its border have ratcheted up tensions in that area, as well as the accusation that Ecuador has been permitting FARC to have a safe haven in the country,” says Frank Holder, FTI's senior managing director for forensic and litigation consulting and a leading expert on security issues in Latin America.   

On the other hand, political tensions and civil unrest in general have seemed to ease a bit recently, he     points out.

 Also Venezuela is seeing a trend towards higher danger, according to the Latin Security Index. Neighboring Colombia still remains more dangerous that Venezuela, although it has the same danger level score.

”Despite President [Alvaro] Uribe’s efforts against the FARC showing demonstrable progress in terms of dramatically lowering kidnapping rates,  the death of a high level FARC commander in Ecuador has led to geopolitical instability, and most likely presages a return of FARC attacks within Colombia, utilizing Venezuela and Ecuador as possible safe havens,” Holder predicts. “The FARC may also be receiving logistical, monetary and weapons support from Venezuela.”   

 The Latin Security Index measures the danger level in Latin America based on homicide rates as well as other factors affecting corporate security and the safety of foreign business executives. FTI Consulting bases its ratings on official numbers from public security secretariats, local police, governments, NGO's and institutes of crime investigations.  

 Each country receives rating from 1 to 5 with 1 representing a non‐dangerous country and 5 representing a very dangerous country. Not one single country in Latin America received a 1. The safest places received 2. Seven countries receive a 3, while eight receive a 4 and Haiti ‐ the most dangerous country ‐ receives a 5. Cuba was not included in the ranking due to unreliable data.

TOP THREATS 

Despite the differences from country to country, Latin America overall presents several security threats for multinationals. "The overall themes remain the same:  kidnapping, cargo theft, carjacking and home invasion,” Holder says. “Civil unrest and political instability have also been making a comeback."  He advises multinationals thinking about setting up operations in Latin America to ensure that they calculate the security cost of doing business in their overall investment and location decisions.  For those already there, he recommends spending some time and thought analyzing the risks and the cost/benefit of different measures in order to secure their critical assets. 

 For business travelers, key dangers include a lack of knowledge of local customs and potential dangers and risks, obvious high profile in their movements and lack of emergency or response contacts in case of problems, Holder says. His best advice to business travelers? “Inform yourself before you travel, try and fit in as best you can, have security where you need it and contingency options and contacts everywhere you go in the region,” Holder says. 

MEXICO AND BRAZIL

 Mexico and Brazil, the top two economies in Latin America, both received danger level scores of 4 – the same as last year.  “Despite President[Felipe] Calderon’s massive operation against the drug cartels and corruption in the police and justice systems, extreme related violence continues to occur in the north and other locations in the country and the jury is out as to whether the government can improve the situation or not ,” Holder says.

Last month, a botched bomb attack in Mexico City killed a man working for drug traffickers in Sinaloa, according to Mexico City attorney general Rodolfo Felix.  The bomb, which went off prematurely, was aimed at a local police chief. 

 However, Holder emphasizes that Mexico’s danger level varies strongly from city to city, with Mexico City and border areas more dangerous than cities like Monterrey, the key business hub of Mexico. 

 In Brazil, authorities continue fighting widespread crime in the slums, or favelas, of Rio de Janeiro. The favelas are increasingly seeing vigilante groups run by off‐duty police. 

 Meanwhile, Argentina, Latin America’s third‐largest economy, is considerably safer than Brazil and Mexico, with a danger level of 3. FTI places it among the five safest countries in Latin America. It is also facing significant crime problems. The new mayor of Buenos Aires, businessman Mauricio Macri, is trying to take control of the city’s police force from federal authorities in an effort to better fight crime. 

HAITI AND BOLIVIA 

 Haiti became even more dangerous the past year, according to the Latin Security Index. "Haiti continues to have civil and political unrest in addition to extremely high murder and other serious crimes rates," says Holder.

 Even more troublesome for the poorest nation in the region is that the danger trend remains high or higher.  Other countries that saw their danger level worsen from the 2007 Latin Security Index are Bolivia and Guatemala, which both went from a danger level of 3 last year to 4 this year. 

 Bolivia’s government and opposition continue to clash almost daily, while street protests continue throughout the country.  Bolivia’s congress last month approved plans to hold a referendum in May on a new constitution. The congress vote was held despite opposition objections. Meanwhile, four states plan to hold a referendum in greater autonomy as well. Both plans have been postponed by the

National Electoral Court, which ruled last week that the May 4 date set by the government was too short “Bolivia’s civil and political unrest continues to spiral out of control,” Holder says.

GUATEMALA

 Guatemala’s campaign against insecurity has led to more civil and political unrest, further accusations of human rights violations and hasn’t yet appeared to measurably reduce public insecurity, Holder says.  “Therefore, similar to Mexico and Colombia, [the] battle so far hasn’t shown positive effects although it may do so in the end,” he says.  “Anecdotally, it is reported by human rights groups that Guatemala has the highest assassination rate of women and children in the world.” President Alvaro Colom, who assumed office in January, has pledged to dramatically improve security.

Holder advises him to continue to push on his objectives and to secure multilateral resources to aid him, but to be as careful as possible to ensure human rights are respected.

IMPROVEMENTS

 On the positive side, three countries improved their danger level from last year. They are the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Uruguay. The two first countries saw their danger level fall from 4 last year to 3 this year, while Uruguay’s level fell from 3 last year to 2 this year.

 ”The Dominican Republic has effectively lowered overall crime rates through investment and focus on public security and probably due to the economy improving as well,” Holder says. 

 In Nicaragua, there has been less gang activity and a lower level of civil and political unrest under President Daniel Ortega, he points out.  

Meanwhile, Uruguay managed to join Costa Rica and Chile as the safest nations in Latin America. “Uruguay’s improving economy seems to be mostly responsible for lowering overall crime rates, in addition to a concerted public security improvement effort,” Holder says.