By: Frank Holder 

All rankings are from 1 to 5 by FTI Consulting Ibero America, 1 representing a non dangerous country, and 5 representing a very dangerous country. The ratings are based on official numbers from Public Security Secretariats, Local Police, Governments, Nongovernmental Organizations (NGO) and Institutes of Crime Investigations.

Story from Latin Business Chronicle

Thanks to growing crime in Venezuela, the country is now the second-most dangerous country in Latin America for foreign multinationals and their executives, according to the third annual Latin Security Index developed by FTI Consulting Ibero America for Latin Business Chronicle.

 "Venezuela is rapidly becoming one of the most violent countries in the region, with an alarming spike in kidnappings for ransom, homicides, and organized crime related to the drug cartels and terrorists moving into Venezuela from Colombia.," says Frank Holder, senior managing director at the international risk and investigations group at FTI Consulting.

GETTING WORSE 

While Venezuela keeps its danger level from last year, the trend shows that it could get worse, the index shows. The government of President Hugo Chavez has prohibited the release of detailed crime statistics, but several experts say Venezuela’s per capita murder rate is now the worst in the word.

 “Violent crime in Venezuela is pervasive, both in the capital, Caracas, and in the interior,’ the US State Department warns. “The country’s overall per capita murder rate is cited as one of the highest in the world.”

 While there has been a 78 percent increase in the number of reported kidnappings, the overwhelming majority of kidnappings are not reported to the police, the State Department points out.

 “Armed robberies take place in broad daylight throughout the city, including areas generally presumed safe and frequented by tourists,” the travel warning says. “Well-armed criminal gangs operate with impunity, often setting up fake police checkpoints. Investigation of all crime is haphazard and ineffective. Only a very small percentage of crimes result in trials and convictions.”

 Overall, security is likely to get worse in Latin America thanks in part to the economic slowdown and probable recession this year. “Key issues affecting public insecurity in the region are the current macroeconomic crisis affecting the world, which has led to massive lay-offs and social unrest in some of the countries,” Holder says.

 Other threats to security include what he calls “veritable wars” between some governments and the drug cartels. That’s especially the case in Mexico. Meanwhile, Latin America till suffers from rampant corruption and a lack of resources available to fight organized crime and public security threats, Holder points out. These factors come in addition to kidnapping, cargo theft, carjacking and home invasion as well as civil unrest and political instability. “Civil unrest/political instability … isn't everywhere, but is in enough places to be a regional concern,” Holder says. It is a key issue in Bolivia, which kept its danger level of 4. “Bolivia continues to suffer from civil unrest and violence due to political instability,” Holder says.

COLOMBIA

 Colombia’s government has continued to make progress in its fight against the drug trafficking terrorist organization FARC. However that was not enough to give the country a new danger level score. “Colombia has made significant advances in combating the FARC and the drug cartels, although there is still significant activity on the border with Venezuela,” Holder says. “The homicide rate remains high as do some indicators related to organized crime.”

 Border skirmishes with Venezuela and Ecuador are likely to affect manufacturing exports, UK-based Exclusive Analysis warns. “Over the next three years there are risks of border skirmishes lasting a few days, which would likely lead to significant commercial disruption, non-payment risks and potential damage to oil infrastructure in border areas,” the risk consultancy said in a recent analysis.

 Venezuela and Ecuador continue harboring FARC terrorists, Colombian officials charge and defense minister Juan Manuel Santos has warned that Colombia has the right to launch cross-border operations against FARC.

 BRAZIL

 Brazil is seeing some progress in security, but not enough to change its danger level of 4. “Brazil has militarized some of its hottest spots, such as the favelas in Rio de Janeiro, a controversial move that has yet to prove its efficacy,” Holder says. “There has been some improvement, though spotty, in areas such as homicides and indices of organized crime.”

Meanwhile, Brazil is also hit by illegal land occupations from the Landless Rural Workers' Movement (MST), which has carried out around 2,000 disruptive protest actions since 1984. “Despite a fall in public support, the MST is likely to occupy land and damage property, especially targeting agribusinesses,” Exclusive Analysis warns. “Its more radical factions, such as Via Campesina, will become more prominent, drawing on those affected by the global economic slowdown. The group has diversified its actions away from land claims to increasingly target agribusinesses, which it blames for pushing up food prices; disrupting deliveries to Vale, the world's biggest iron ore producer, which the MST believes should be re-nationalized; and to protecting the environment (including opposition to hydroelectric projects and biofuels).”

 Laboratories operated by agribusiness firm Syngenta have been ransacked and threats of similar actions made against Monsanto, Bunge, Cargill, Suzano Papel e Celulose and DuPont, Exclusive Analysis points out. Also numerous companies producing sugar, soybeans and other crops have been targeted.

 The killing of four security guards during a land seizure in Pernambuco in February has led to strong criticism of the group by both the public and government and if São Paulo governor José Serra wins Brazil’s next presidential elections, he will likely implement a tougher line against the group than current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or his chosen heir, Dilma Russeff, Exclusive Analysis predicts. Both Lula and Russeff belong to the Workers Party, which traditionally has had close ties to MST.

MEXICO

 Mexico also kept its danger level at 4, but the trend is more danger. “Mexico is caught in a war between the government and the major drug cartels in the country which has led to a spike in kidnappings and homicides,” Holder says. “Police corruption has been rampant, and efforts to clean up these forces have led to military intervention as well as a request for assistance from the United States, particularly in lawless border towns. It is too early to tell if the government will effectively be able to win this war, although there are some good signs in the last few months.”

 Meanwhile, leftist EPR guerrillas also pose a risk. “Security has been tightened at energy installations, but Pemex pipelines are vulnerable to attack by groups like the EPR guerrillas,” Exclusive Analysis said last week. “While Mexico is currently under the spotlight due to the record number of killings attributed to drug cartels, we assess that recent thefts of industrial explosives underscore the less-publicized risks of bombings against Mexico's oil and gas pipelines.”

 EPR bombed the pipeline network of Pemex on four occasions between July and September 2007 and has threatened to resume armed actions.

CENTRAL AMERICA

 There are significant differences within Central America, with countries like Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala having low levels of security, while Costa Rica is the safest in all of Latin America.

 Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala kept their danger level of 4, while Nicaragua kept its level of 3 and Costa Rica its low level of 2.

 “Honduras suffered nearly 6,000 homicides in 2008 [and] indicators show kidnappings may have doubled year on year and vehicle theft increased by more than 40 percent by some accounts,” Holder says. “The Maras gang violence continues to be an endemic problem that hits the urban centers hardest.”

 Meanwhile, in neighboring El Salvador, more than 700 murders have been reported since the beginning of the year, the most violent rate since 2004, Holder points out. “Gang violence from the Maras remains the most intractable problem,” he says.

 And Guatemala ended 2008 with 5,100 homicides, 500 more than in 2007. “The Zetas, linked to the Mexican drug cartels, have penetrated the country and there has been a subsequent increase in drug related insecurity,” Holder says. “The government sought and received approval for the largest public security budget ever in order to try and revert the situation.”

 Even Nicaragua, which has boasted low crime levels compared to most of its neighbors, has seen growing crime. Violent crimes have grown an average of 14 percent a year from 2004 to 2008, Holder points out.

PERU AND ARGENTINA

 Peru, Ecuador and Argentina all kept their danger levels of 3.

 In Peru, Shining Path is likely to target electricity infrastructure in Huánuco and San Martín provinces ahead of April 2011 elections, Exclusive Analysis warns. During the past month, they twice attempted to sabotage the electricity infrastructure around Tingo María, Huánuco province and one attack was successful, causing a black-out in nearby towns.

 One of the group’s factions – based in the valleys of Huánuco and San Martín, in the central highlands -- is likely to target infrastructure, as its leader is keen to force the SP back onto the political agenda thorough high-profile disruptive actions, Exclusive Analysis said last week.

 In Argentina, the public is increasingly demanding tougher action against crime. Last month, more than 8,000 people in Buenos Aires protested a wave of recent murders, while thousands more protested throughout the country.

 “Argentina maintains a high level of juvenile delinquency, with a small increase in kidnapping according to some indicators as well as increased illicit activity tied to narcotics trafficking,” Holder says. “The government has responded by recruiting more public security forces, but their effect has yet to be seen.”

 Argentina’s president Cristina Kirchner last month announced a new $100 million anti-crime program, which include installing new surveillance equipment and providing police with cell phones.  Crime rates have nearly doubled in the past two decades, and one in every 32 Argentines reported being a crime victim in 2007, according to statistics from the Justice Ministry quoted by AP. However, Kirchner and other officials say media reports about growing crime are exaggerated.

CHILE

 Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, along with Costa Rica and Uruguay. The three countries kept their danger level score of 2.

 While overall safe, companies in Chile does face some danger from violent activists from the Mapuche indigenous group, which oppose the presence of timber, hydroelectric and agribusiness companies in the southern VIII, IX and XIV regions. Attacks have included arson attacks on timber and eucalyptus plantations, farm buildings, machinery, vehicles and government buildings

 “We expect further attacks; primarily in the south, but also by the growing number of Mapuche economic migrants to Santiago,” Exclusive Analysis warns.