By: Frank Holder 

Latin Security Index 2010

NOTE: All rankings are from 1 to 5 by FTI Consulting Ibero America, 1 representing a non dangerous country, and 5 representing a very dangerous country.

 METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES

FTI Consulting Ibero America conducts an annual analysis of how each country in the region is doing related to public insecurity, with a special focus on the business community. This allows longer-term trends to be seen in terms of improvement or worsening of the situation.

 FTI Consulting Ibero America obtains government statistics at the federal, state or province and municipal level in areas such as homicides, serious crime, cargo theft, home invasions, kidnapping, political and labor unrest, riots and violent demonstrations and drug trafficking, as well as government programs put in place to combat these problems.

  FTI Consulting Ibero America weighs the governmental data from each country based on its reliability, and also utilizes NGO and multilateral institution statistics and information in all these areas as a part of its ranking. It conducts scans of all major regional media outlets in order to obtain more specific facts around certain phenomena as well as academic research on the issue.

 Finally, since the orientation is towards the business community, FTI Consulting Ibero America polls its client base related to security incidents among their people and assets, and add that as a factor in the ranking. FTI Consulting’s clients are many of the Fortune 500 companies as well as many multi-Latinas and large local companies throughout the region.

Story from Latin Business Chronicle

 What are the safest countries for foreign multinationals and executives? What are the most dangerous? How is security compared to last year in each country? The fourth annual Latin Security Index developed by FTI Consulting Ibero America for Latin Business Chronicle has the answers.

 Overall, Latin America has maintained a similar level of public insecurity to last year, with some notable exceptions of either a worsening situation or substantive improvements. "Public insecurity continues to be one of the main concerns of citizens in practically all countries of the region, as well as an inhibitor of growth and a detriment to overall quality of life," says Frank L. Holder, Senior Managing Director at FTI.

 The most notable change in the index was Venezuela worsening its score from 4 to 5. A score of 1 represents a safe country and 5 represents a very dangerous country. Venezuela was the only country to worsen or even change its score from the index last year. The ratings are based on official numbers from public security secretariats, local police, governments, nongovernmental organizations and institutes of crime investigations.

 However, also countries like El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico continued to show deteriorations in their overall situations. And even Chile -- one of the safest in Latin America -- has been affected by a jump in insecurity, albeit temporarily due to the February 27 earthquake.

 "The tragedies in Haiti and Chile have created temporary increases in public insecurity, Haiti’s being predicted to last longer and Chile’s already coming under control," Holder says.

HAITI

 Even before the looting in the aftermath of the January 12 earthquake, Haiti was the most dangerous country in Latin America. Its score remains 5. "The devastating earthquake at the beginning of the year has led to a general increase in almost all categories of public insecurity, although the ensuing chaos has made it difficult to have any reliable statistics," Holder says.

 The US State Department is crystal clear about the danger in the Caribbean country. "There are no "safe” areas in Haiti," it says in its travel warning. "There is a persistent danger of violent crime, which can be subject to periodic surges sometimes not obviously explained by other events or conditions."

VENEZUELA

 Venezuela again ranks as the second-most dangerous country in Latin America for foreign multinationals and executives, only behind Haiti. The South American country's security has worsened the past year and is expected to keep getting worse.

 "A severe economic crisis in conjunction with electricity black-outs, interruptions of the water and food supplies and severe political polarization and juridical instability have all contributed to a spiral of violence, kidnappings and extortions," Holder says.

 A new national police force was created in December to fight the growing crime, but has so far seen little success. Part of the reason is the continued politization of law enforcement, experts say. "The National Police will impose a culture of peace in the barrios to eliminate the violence of the capitalist, bourgeois model that we've inherited," Justice Minister Tareck El Aissami said when the new police was launched. One Caracas resident told AP a common joke: "If you get robbed, don't shout. The police might come."

 Venezuela's murder rate reached 16,047 last year compared with 14.589 in 2008 and 4,550 in 1998, when President Hugo Chavez came to power, according to the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, an NGO that compiles statistics on crime. That translates to 54 murders per 100,000 inhabitants last year, which means Venezuela has the second-highest homicide rate in Latin America after El Salvador. It also means Venezuela experiences every month about as many deaths as occurred in the Gaza Strip during Israel's early 2009 offensive, OVV director Roberto Briceno Leon told Reuters earlier this month. "The problem is not so much the criminals, but rather the government's inaction and lack of policies," Briceno Leon said.

 The situation in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, is even worse. There the murder rate is now 140 per 100,000 citizens, the second-highest in Latin America after Ciudad Juarez in Mexico.

 Kidnappings have grown from 35 in 1990 to 382 in 2007, according to data quoted in a new report from the Organization of American States in January this year.

HONDURAS

 Honduras has gone from being the seventh-most dangerous country to the third-most dangerous place for foreign multinationals and executives.

 "Crime is endemic in Honduras and requires a high degree of caution by U.S. visitors and residents alike," warns the US State Department. "Honduras...(has) one of the world’s highest per capita murder rates."

 The political instability and related violence that hit the country has calmed with the election of a new President, Holder says. However, during 2009 the number of murders increased 30 percent compared to the previous year, according to local NGO’s. "The problem of the Maras (juvenile gangs) still hasn’t been addressed effectively and petty crime has been on the rise," Holder says. 

EL SALVADOR

 El Salvador has gone from being the 8th-most dangerous to the fourth-most dangerous country in Latin America for foreign multinationals and executives.

El Salvador ended 2009 with 4,300 murders, the highest crime rate in many years, according to the Civil National Police. El Salvador also has the highest per capita murder rate in Latin America, beating Venezuela.

"Gang violence from the “Maras” remains the most uncontrollable problem," Holder says. The number of pandilleros (gang members) is close to 30,000 in the country and El Salvador is statistically among the three most violent countries in Latin America, he adds.

MEXICO

 Despite the widespread media coverage of the growing drug-related violence, Mexico does not rank as the most dangerous country in Latin America for foreign multinationals and executives. Instead, its score is 4 and overall rank is fifth -- behind Haiti, Venezuela and two Central American countries.

 But for Mexicans that is a small consolation. "Without any doubt, the country was affected more than any other country in the region by the world economic crisis, suffering from the loss of exports to United States during 2009," Holder points out. "*President Felipe+ Calderon’s Administration continues the battle against the drug cartels in the north (US border), center and west regions of the country, but the government’s efforts so far have not slowed down a spiral in violence and killing. "

 In general, cities like Monterrey --the top business hub in Mexico -- are safer than border cities like Ciudad Juarez, which has the highest murder rate in Latin America.

GUATEMALA

 Guatemala kepts its score of 4, but went from being the ninth-most dangerous country in Latin America to the sixth-most dangerous place for foreign multinationals and executives.

Guatemala ended 2009 with 5,500 homicides, close to 500 more than in 2008. "Guatemala has one of the highest violent crime rates in Latin America," the US State Department says. "Rule of law is lacking as the judicial system is weak, overworked, and inefficient. Well-armed criminals know there is little chance they will be caught or punished."

BRAZIL

 All eyes are now on Brazil, as the country prepares to host two major sports events -- the World Cup in soccer in 2014 and the Summer Olympics in 2016.

 "This has produced a strong commitment in the national administration to controlling and eradicating complex problems such as the drug gangs, organized crime and juvenile delinquency," Holder says. "Brazil continues control actions and fighting against the narcotics gangs in the main favelas (shanty towns) of Rio de Janeiro." Brazil is the Latin America country that has put the most resources towards controlling public insecurity, he points out. "Economic and political stability has caused improvement in several macroeconomic indicators, which appear to have assisted in improving some categories of public security," he says.

 Brazil has a score of 4 and it ranks as the 7th-most dangerous country in Latin America. "Overall indicators have not improved significantly so far," Holder says.

COLOMBIA

 Colombia still has a score of 4, but has gone from the third-most dangerous country last year to the 8th-most dangerous one.

 "Colombia has made significant advances in combating the FARC and the drug cartels, although there is still significant activity on the border with Venezuela," Holder says.

 The homicide rate remains high in cities like Bogota and Medellin and there was an increase in crimes relating to juvenile delinquency last year, he points out.

 President Alvaro Uribe is credited with the dramatic improvement of security in Colombia since 2002. Although his term ends in August, his successor will likely continue his aggressive security policies. So far, the leading candidate in the May 2010 president elections is Juan Manuel Santos, who as defense minister under Uribe led the Hollywood-style rescue of American hostages in July 2008.

BOLIVIA

While it kept its score of 4, Bolivia managed to go from being the 6th-most dangerous country to the ninth-most dangerous place.

 Those results, however, are due to a higher degree of deterioration in other countries rather than progress in Bolivia. National statistics show a sustained increase in crime rates over the last five years and last year the OAS reported that Bolivia is among the five Latin American countries with the highest rate in human trafficking.

 "President Evo Morales’s second mandate has begun with some geopolitical problems in some states, although things have calmed down compared to the last mandate," Holder says.

ARGENTINA

 Argentina remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, with a score of 3, although crime is growing.

"Argentina continues to suffer from a high level of juvenile delinquency," Holder points out. According to indicators there was a slight increase in violent street crimes, as well as increased illicit activity tied to drugs trafficking.

 A new metropolitan police force has been created in Buenos Aires with jurisdiction only inside the city limits. The new force was created in order to create more police presence and control crimes in the city’s streets. "But several political problems exist due to overlapping duties and jurisdiction with the Federal Police," Holder says. 

CHILE, URUGUAY AND COSTA RICA

 Only three countries get a score of 2 and are thus again ranked as the safest in Latin America. "Chile, Uruguay and Costa Rica remain the safest countries in the region, despite the temporary blip of insecurity related to the earthquake aftermath in Chile," Holder says.

 Costa Rica, which remains the safest of the three, is also suffering from rising crime. "Crime has become an increasing concern for Costa Ricans and visitors alike," the US State Department says. "Daytime robberies in public places occur, and thieves have been known to brandish weapons or threaten violence if victims resist."

 Laura Chinchilla, who assumes Costa Rica's presidency in May, has vowed to agressively fight crime.